2008年1月抗震基金榜点评
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源自：新浪财经
时间：2008-2-4 16:20:00
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李嘉诚说未曾听闻过中央会出手救市，倘有人以此消息炒作股市，即使赚钱实属"罪过"。
[详细]
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(1)1月中旬后受国际环境影响，国内市场出现大幅下跌，而持续半个月之久的降雪，更增添了投资者的恐慌心理，市场信心明显不足。基金净值表现纷纷受挫。目前市场猴性十足，上蹿下跳，市场的板块轮动特征较为明显，金融、地产板块领跌，重仓这些板块的基金受到较大的损失。而资产配置多元化、适时调整投资策略、正确把握市场热点的基金则表现较好。从策略角度来看，震荡走势下，抗震基金的选择仍是我们需要持续关注的投资线索之一。
(2)从1月抗震基金榜来看，排名前20的基金变化不大，其中，长盛成长、国泰精选、银华保本已连续四个月位居前列，而长盛成长更是连续七个月稳坐榜首。多个月的连续数据跟踪显示，各种基金类型中均有长期相对抗跌的基金品种，这说明基金抗跌性与其操作风格和投资理念有关。
(3)本月抗震榜排名出现一显著特点，即：指数型基金整体排名下降。大盘震荡首当其冲的就是被动型指数基金，被动型指数基金受大盘表现的拖累，往往缺乏抗跌性。另外，部分投资风格较为激进的股票型基金排名也有所下降。
(4)在震荡市下，收益向下波动的风险更让投资者关心。这就要通过基金的负Beta系数来判断。负Beta系数小于1，说明在市场下跌时基金净值跌幅小于市场；负Beta系数大于1，说明在市场下跌时基金净值跌幅大于市场。需要注意的是，抗震榜中的负Beta系数是以过去一年的数据进行计算，体现基金的长期业绩状况。比如，华安宏利的负Beta系数为0.49，大致可以理解为，历次市场下跌的时候，其净值跌幅不及股票市场的一半。长盛成长多月排名前列，其负Beta系数为-0.2365，本月度收益率-8.82%，远低于上证-19.64%的跌幅，在连续多月的震荡走势中该基金的表现均好于大盘。
(5)从1月抗震榜来看，此次下跌也体现出配置型基金的抗跌优势，这主要在于配置型基金本身的投资特点—“进可攻退可守”。由于其资产配置的比例可以根据行情灵活变化，所以当市场不稳定的时候可以将持有股票的比例缩小，而所持有的股票又可以保证是那些估值水平低但优质的股票，做到灵活自如。华夏回报、上投双息以及海富通收益的1月跌幅小于上证指数，抗震排名也小幅上升。
(6)目前股市处于震荡调整期，我们预计2008年的市场不会是单边上扬的走势，股市动荡会进一步加剧，既有来自市场自身的因素，也有来自周围环境的因素。从这个角度来讲，稳健型投资者在选择基金时，基金业绩只能作为参考指标之一，基金的投资风险性，基金的类型以及基金的抗跌性等都要加以考虑。
附表：2008年1月抗震基金榜全表基金名称近一年负Beta系数近一年Beta系数近两年负Beta系数近两年Beta系数1月排名12月排名1.14～1.31收益1.14～1.31仓位长盛成长-0.23650.48320.14350.539611-11.51%74.56%银华保本-0.19120.0456-0.05970.069722-4.20%18.75%国泰精选-0.12230.64810.24230.647833-13.06%67.44%添富优势-0.10920.72190.34970.79344-15.58%86.61%华夏回报-0.03390.51750.23280.627857-9.27%67.02%建信优选-0.03320.6939－－65-16.18%91.33%中国精选-0.01450.57610.21370.598276-13.00%84.79%南方绩优0.00430.7579－－89-12.32%76.51%华安创新0.00870.58540.36620.627798-9.76%78.90%宝康消费品0.02390.56650.33210.57561011-9.46%77.56%广发稳健0.03410.69140.34050.70871110-13.90%76.46%嘉实成长0.05470.45270.30780.50661212-12.44%72.16%汇丰20160.05770.4442－－1313-9.43%66.30%富国天源0.05990.55810.39650.59341415-11.18%70.33%交银精选0.06390.64180.42240.67031516-14.64%79.48%金鹰增长0.06990.71340.41980.75311614-12.66%75.46%银华优选0.07110.7710.46660.80961717-15.28%85.01%长城消费0.07150.5764－－1818-14.66%76.41%盛利配置0.07680.330.13830.31261920-4.15%24.96%景顺平衡0.08120.59850.41650.63232019-13.49%73.89%华宝增长0.09070.75130.40260.75462121-6.44%87.30%荷银预算0.11330.40710.21530.41072222-9.43%62.62%富国天惠0.11360.60090.47050.6742323-12.49%88.42%南方稳健0.12530.64960.35960.75442424-14.18%65.24%银华优质0.12930.7814－－2527-15.06%84.49%南稳贰号0.13010.6762－－2625-13.22%69.25%建信恒久0.13470.7142－－2731-13.27%78.22%华宝动力0.13510.63970.37930.64342829-11.75%83.84%宝康配置0.13690.50640.35350.53592926-10.72%72.20%嘉实稳健0.14150.60010.41660.63053032-11.49%77.32%国海收益0.14290.4720.33170.4563128-10.24%64.86%嘉实增长0.14310.61290.44620.63973230-11.34%78.79%上投阿尔法0.14940.65330.45670.69713344-9.65%83.73%富国天益0.15250.65350.43390.72893433-11.55%67.87%荷银精选0.15470.79930.49240.86313542-15.11%87.57%德盛小盘0.15560.64590.40720.67363634-11.29%83.51%金鹿保本0.16270.279－－3736-4.01%20.03%华泰中国0.16390.71480.40390.73713840-13.87%78.04%工银价值0.16580.72530.51810.75183937-13.28%70.30%国泰回报0.16730.66990.56010.72244035-12.49%64.69%广发优选0.16790.8025－－4139-15.36%91.27%富国天瑞0.16820.59020.39460.64924251-8.58%85.03%南方避险0.17330.52660.37010.50554338-9.47%48.80%诺安平衡0.17950.69980.48520.71884447-12.05%65.91%工银成长0.18030.6349－－45－-15.67%87.25%南方高增0.18130.77730.55640.78324648-13.69%71.15%兴业趋势0.18240.66050.45860.7094741-12.13%75.31%工银平衡0.18280.6319－－4846-13.70%79.02%招商先锋0.18840.62320.46910.65964945-13.75%84.36%南方积配0.19450.77660.60550.76325059-11.58%78.75%荷银周期0.19620.6980.42510.71955152-11.45%74.62%景顺增长20.19630.718－－5243-15.25%84.54%德盛安心0.19760.45130.34810.435349-8.45%51.23%添富增长0.19790.6977－－5456-13.37%87.44%招商平衡0.2010.47850.39690.52165550-8.94%47.84%嘉实服务0.20110.70950.44660.6885657-13.97%79.43%广发聚丰0.20560.7721－－5755-14.49%83.93%金鹰优选0.20920.5490.39340.5825854-13.29%68.15%海富通优势0.21250.6244－－5953-13.83%83.53%荷银效率0.21570.5976－－6060-12.19%66.83%国泰金鹏0.21610.6794－－6162-13.16%76.24%嘉实主题0.220.7309－－6269-13.20%88.29%汇丰龙腾0.22170.6654－－6358-13.87%80.40%长城平衡0.22590.53820.51760.58296465-10.56%60.72%华宝成长0.22870.6661－－6568-9.68%67.52%海富通精选0.23190.61490.45140.65166667-10.73%75.48%银华优势0.23230.62680.44620.65016763-13.30%71.71%富国天合0.23750.712－－6866-13.41%87.24%大成20200.23980.7722－－6961-18.74%76.24%普天收益0.24470.67070.41960.69747064-14.29%78.22%荷银首选0.24570.7458－－7170-14.94%89.66%盛利精选0.24980.57990.43870.63437271-12.11%67.48%银华880.25480.7930.56620.82447373-17.29%91.44%博时配置0.25790.5842－－7476-8.96%54.79%招商成长0.25870.7640.54460.79667572-15.34%87.70%招商股票0.25910.64670.53230.69887674-11.93%70.43%国海弹性0.25950.7143－－7775-11.91%85.62%中信配置0.26610.62710.45260.63577882-12.73%66.34%广发聚富0.27040.6480.44360.69827980-11.25%76.67%海富通收益0.27040.68110.48260.66058084-12.88%76.00%万家保本0.27540.15160.23680.17238181-1.28%3.42%长城回报0.28220.6923－－8277-15.71%82.05%信诚四季红0.29320.669－－8386-13.77%83.13%景顺鼎益0.29510.70240.62610.72458485-14.03%75.23%大成稳健0.29790.68840.59380.77848579-17.19%75.93%长信增利0.29840.8091－－8687-13.13%82.15%景顺增长0.29990.70610.59610.77818783-15.32%80.75%银华主题0.3010.8054－－8888-15.42%87.60%博时主题0.30220.58910.51890.6168978-14.91%76.73%信诚成长0.30310.7466－－9096-12.81%80.22%易方达增长0.30520.5960.53030.59869192-10.41%67.81%申万新动力0.31180.83630.57370.88229291-13.93%92.14%交银成长0.31310.7817－－9398-14.25%79.43%景顺股票0.31410.67990.55350.69939494-12.90%74.98%景顺资源0.32120.7532－－9593-15.50%86.17%华宝收益0.32440.8117－－9699-13.48%87.02%易方达成长0.32770.76560.63540.8539797-11.95%78.26%宝盈鸿利0.32810.70750.64950.77629890-12.60%66.45%鹏华500.33030.72610.58250.77299101-11.31%74.14%世纪分红0.33030.73890.54220.859100102-15.07%85.60%诺安股票0.33460.6583－－10189-18.06%86.16%博时精选0.33540.63470.52410.687110295-14.35%74.39%博时价值20.34050.6612－－103100-13.26%72.40%国投创新0.34160.7959－－104105-14.15%82.69%国投景气0.34960.6360.49240.663105103-12.45%66.08%华夏回报20.350.6715－－106104-12.73%76.60%博时价值0.36370.57580.50230.6393107106-13.18%76.66%国投核心0.3650.8586－－108116-15.01%86.46%中海成长0.36770.77760.51520.7982109114-13.84%86.58%交银稳健0.36780.7681－－110118-13.68%74.67%融通景气0.36860.8370.58390.8586111107-17.96%86.38%易方达精选0.37160.8263－－112113-12.81%88.31%兴业全球0.37430.7185－－113111-11.30%80.05%海富通回报0.37850.6815－－114117-11.61%82.77%鹏华成长0.38060.64130.54480.6829115119-12.34%86.97%易方达策略20.38270.8326－－116122-14.86%88.23%荷银稳定0.38380.60050.57490.6434117120-13.47%67.99%荷银成长0.38460.59130.47520.6526118112-8.78%81.24%大成价值0.38490.6740.57570.7295119121-14.21%74.71%融通成长0.39190.65120.44980.6399120115-16.45%84.43%上投双息0.39450.6135－－121136-7.80%67.75%易方达500.39460.7710.68720.7769122110-19.54%85.78%保德信量化0.39670.80880.58970.8332123109-19.34%87.32%德盛稳健0.39690.69020.60390.7086124123-12.33%80.68%华夏成长0.40210.69790.580.7611125134-10.94%82.72%50ETF0.40290.79280.6920.7886126108-20.54% 大成精选0.41660.7980.64750.9083127131-15.05%83.52%海通股票0.41850.72190.66510.7624128124-14.87%81.69%光大增长0.42090.8342－－129127-14.02%87.86%诺安价值0.42410.7634－－130126-18.19%90.86%中银增长0.42430.6754－－131125-10.19%63.65%申万新经济0.42580.7345－－132129-12.47%65.82%易方达策略0.43470.83440.73440.9152133133-14.76%88.64%光大红利0.43660.7989－－134132-13.96%86.98%长盛同智0.44030.7682－－135－-15.56%77.05%景顺成长0.4440.7611－－136137-14.53%84.26%中海红利0.44580.72430.56120.7109137135-14.08%84.45%天弘精选0.45010.7490.55290.6859138138-15.45%85.92%鹏华价值0.45150.6928－－139128-13.92%88.09%新蓝筹0.45530.71790.65550.7401140130-16.89%78.49%银河银泰0.45530.76390.61790.7673141146-12.66%84.46%嘉禾精选0.46670.79490.63210.8053142139-14.66%69.12%华夏优增0.47750.7815－－143－-13.15%79.95%德盛精选0.47790.8191－－144144-11.97%83.62%长盛1000.48040.798－－145－-20.76%94.60%天治增长0.48770.69970.50570.7027146148-11.56%53.03%博时裕富0.48890.80820.72060.8035147140-18.68%－华安宏利0.49080.7757－－148145-12.88%82.39%天治核心0.49280.8616－－149142-18.24%87.33%长盛精选0.4950.68330.69730.7315150141-18.61%86.84%融通巨潮0.49960.84060.76150.8454151143-19.09%95.02%银河稳健0.50690.76860.59380.8067152153-13.01%78.63%深100ETF0.50840.9714－－153147-16.64%－华夏红利0.51060.7610.58410.8198154149-11.58%79.54%上投成长0.52010.8153－－155156-13.33%89.38%长信精选0.5210.77030.70480.7609156150-15.63%90.25%宝盈沿海0.52590.73970.68510.7785157151-13.89%83.21%中银收益0.53050.6559－－158155-11.33%84.95%华安MSCI0.5410.86420.74040.8661159152-17.66%94.25%万家1800.56320.82040.76870.8338160154-18.62%－中信红利0.56450.75520.69020.7819161157-15.97%80.45%华夏增长0.59430.788－－162161-13.45%77.35%长城久泰0.61010.89510.7730.8991163158-18.04%92.88%益民红利0.61150.8155－－164159-14.39%85.00%东吴双动力0.61190.8543－－165－-7.92%83.64%万家公用0.61560.58740.64090.617166160-14.49%92.36%融通先锋0.6180.8478－－167163-16.77%88.46%融通深1000.62020.95940.76290.9663168164-15.41%94.48%180ETF0.63560.8882－－169162-20.35%96.30%天治优选0.64150.82870.58780.8017170166-13.22%85.48%东方精选0.65320.8318－－171165-13.34%86.60%华富优选0.66910.79490.7030.8269172168-13.40%76.62%泰信策略0.68460.86540.77610.8625173170-14.39%84.43%大成3000.69340.8974－－174167-18.68%95.36%金鹰精选0.7020.66250.62650.6913175169-9.97%70.25%中邮优选0.72720.9624－－176171-16.85%86.23%嘉实3000.74930.96940.91530.9458177172-18.53%－长信金利0.75110.9398－－178174-15.77%89.64%上投优势0.77810.8420.83980.9305179177-10.38%83.67%万家和谐0.78560.8938－－181－-18.76%84.64%中小板0.79810.8213－－182175-12.05%－巨田资源0.79840.93280.90240.9028183173-18.19%86.32%广发小盘0.81150.90190.91490.9221184176-15.76%87.67%华夏精选0.83020.81310.74450.8603185178-9.96%77.31%东方龙0.95560.90480.93010.915186179-16.10%88.04%巨田基础0.96270.85490.89850.8215187180-11.09%87.36%红利ETF1.03761.0078－－188 -20.62%－泰信优质1.10960.9761－－189 -16.89%85.97%
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